The two systems in the Atlantic battling for the name “Tropical Storm Dolly” are gradually losing steam and becoming less likely to form a tropical cyclone.
These eastern Atlantic systems are facing significant obstacles, due in part to a strong, still-intensifying El Niño.
Areas to watch in the tropical Atlantic
The western area shown in yellow on the map above has a low, and decreasing, chance of developing.
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The NHC has designated that area of low pressure, Invest 92L. That’s a designation of an area to watch that allows higher-resolution forecast models to be run on it and for the Hurricane Hunters to investigate it.
The area is located over 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, the north-south chain of islands at the eastern end of the Caribbean Sea. So, that system is really far from land right now.
(MORE: What all tropical terms actually mean)
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The NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave farther east, trailing hundreds of miles behind the first wave. This wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms but could see development in the next several days as it moves generally to the west. The NHC has designated this area Invest 94L.
The next systems with winds of at least 39 mph will be named Tropical Storm Dolly and Tropical Storm Edouard.
New systems will face challenges
Both of the systems crossing the tropical Atlantic will not have an easy road ahead.
Tropical systems don’t like wind shear, and there is plenty ahead. It either rips them apart or tilts and weakens them.
The map below shows where wind shear is high right now in the purple contours. Notice the west-to-east tongues of high wind shear? That’s being turbocharged by a strong and still strengthening El Niño.
(MORE: Super El Niño already affecting hurricane season)
This map shows areas of wind shear, areas where wind speeds and direction change with height. That’s important because areas of strong wind shear can rip apart tropical storms or those systems trying to develop.
In fact, wind shear in the Caribbean and eastern Atlantic has been the strongest on record, due to the intensifying El Niño, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach.
If the systems from Africa manage to make it as far west as the Lesser Antilles, and that could happen by Saturday for the first, then it could face more formidable wind shear and get ripped apart sometime after that.
Even before these systems get there, they could face some dry air, another nemesis of tropical systems.
Cristobal’s short life
After weeks of quiet weather in the Atlantic Basin, the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed Wednesday morning in the central Atlantic Ocean well east of Bermuda and west of the Azores.
Just 24 hours later on Thursday morning, the NHC said Cristobal degenerated into a remnant low.
What you should know
The bottom line is there isn’t much to worry about, for now, particularly for the mainland U.S.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely watch the forecast, as always, as we head into the typical heart of hurricane season.
Sometimes forecasts can change and do so quickly.
Despite a quieter hurricane season expected, that doesn’t mean there won’t be any storms.
Prepare now while it’s still quiet in case that “one storm” in a generally quiet season threatens your area.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
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